Currently, the low-speed autonomous vehicle industry is at a crossroads where it is experiencing both wild growth and a process of standardization and transformation. Beijing requires the presence of safety personnel, Shenzhen allows fully autonomous operation, and Shanghai limits specific operating areas. The varying policies in different regions have made the industry development highly uncertain, causing anxiety among investors and operators. However, as the regulatory system gradually improves, the period from 2025 to 2027 will be a crucial three-year period for the industry's development. A series of policy adjustments will reshape the industry landscape and drive low-speed autonomous vehicles to move from "unregulated growth" to a new stage of "compliant development".
>>>> Implementation of national standards: Establishing unified standards to define industry thresholds
For a long time, low-speed unmanned vehicles have lacked a unified definition and technical standards. Key indicators such as maximum speed limit, vehicle size, and load capacity vary from place to place, which has hindered the industry's large-scale development. The good news is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Transport have taken the lead in formulating national standards, and it is expected that a draft will be completed in the second half of 2025. According to information from various industry sources, the upcoming national standard will clearly set four core requirements: the maximum speed limit is set at 25 km/h, the total vehicle weight should not exceed 800 kg, it must have basic safety functions such as emergency braking and fault safety, and black boxes must be installed to record operation data.
The implementation of this standard will bring about the first round of "major reshuffling" in the industry. Currently, about 30% of the models on the market will need to be redesigned, especially some delivery vehicles with a load exceeding 1 ton, as they do not meet the quality requirements and need to completely adjust their product plans. For enterprises, the national standard is not only a technical threshold but also a "passport" for market access. Prioritizing the alignment with the standards for product upgrades will become the key for enterprises to seize the market.
The one-size-fits-all management model is difficult to adapt to the diverse application scenarios of low-speed unmanned vehicles. Hierarchical management has become an industry consensus. In the future, policies will refer to the management approach for drones and divide them into three levels based on application scenarios. Different levels will correspond to different approval requirements and operation norms.
Closed park-level areas (such as industrial parks, campuses, and scenic spots) have private roads and are physically isolated, so the approval process is the most lenient. In most cases, only registration is required for operation, making it an entry-level market for enterprises. Semi-open park-level areas (such as Yizhuang and Suzhou Industrial Park) involve some public roads and have a high volume of people, so they need to obtain an operation license, undergo regular annual inspections, and be required to take out compulsory insurance. The compliance requirements have significantly increased. Public road-level areas operate on municipal roads and have the strictest standards. They will be参照 the regulations for low-speed electric vehicles， requiring registration， having certified operators， and limiting the operating sections and times.
This classification model will guide enterprises to focus on specific scenarios and avoid blind expansion. The compliance costs for cross-level operations will increase significantly. In the future, there will be fewer "all-round" enterprises in the industry and "specialized" players will become the mainstream.
Insurance and Liability Determination: Solving the Pain Points in Industry Development
Unclear liability determination and cumbersome claim procedures have always been the key pain points hindering the commercialization of low-speed unmanned vehicles. Before 2026, specialized insurance products for low-speed unmanned vehicles and guidelines for liability determination are expected to be introduced, filling the industry gap.
The policy will explicitly mandate compulsory insurance for third-party liability, with the minimum coverage amount not less than 500,000 yuan. At the same time, a multi-party liability allocation mechanism for the operators, manufacturers, and algorithm suppliers will be established. The operational data recorded in the black box will become the core basis for liability determination. Additionally, the establishment of a rapid claim settlement channel will effectively avoid prolonged disputes after an accident and reduce operational risks in the industry. Currently, many insurance companies are negotiating pilot plans with industry associations. It is expected that the annual insurance premium for a single vehicle will range from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan. Although this is an increase compared to the current level, the improvement of compliance guarantees will lay the foundation for the long-term development of the industry.
Data Security: Establishing a Red Line for Industry Development
During the operation of low-speed unmanned vehicles, a large amount of sensitive data is collected. The commercial secrets of park patrol vehicles, the facial and license plate information recorded by delivery vehicles, etc., all pose extremely high requirements for data security. Future policies will clearly define data security management norms and delineate industry red lines: data must be stored locally and cannot be uploaded to the cloud at will; for sensitive information such as faces, they need to be encoded or encrypted; the retention period and usage scope of operational data will be strictly limited, and enterprises must undergo regular cybersecurity reviews.
In the current market environment, data security compliance has become a prerequisite for enterprises to obtain projects. In the future, enterprises that do not meet data security requirements will find it difficult to undertake projects, and data security capabilities will become one of the core competitiveness of enterprises.
Operational qualifications: Elevating the industry's entry barriers
Currently, the operational threshold for low-speed unmanned vehicles is relatively low, resulting in a mixed group of market participants. In the future, policies will set clear operational qualification requirements: the registered capital of enterprises should be no less than 5 million yuan, and they must have a professional technical response team; remote operators need to pass theoretical and practical examinations and obtain certificates before taking up their positions; at the same time, enterprises must establish complete emergency response plans and regular exercise systems.
This adjustment will effectively filter out small-scale, weak enterprises. Previously, remote operators who started working after only a short training session will, in the future, undergo standardized management like online ride-hailing drivers. The professional capabilities of the operators will directly affect the application for the operating qualifications of the enterprises.
Local pilot projects and industry reshuffling: Opportunities and challenges coexist
After the national standards are issued, the implementation pace will vary across different regions. Economically developed areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Hangzhou will take the lead in conducting pilot projects, accumulating experience before promoting them nationwide. The policies in these regions will be more open, but the compliance requirements will also be stricter; policies in the central and western regions may be relatively lenient, but the market size is smaller. Enterprises need to consider their own strengths and weigh the options to focus on key regions for deep development, avoiding blind expansion.
The tightening of policies will accelerate the industry elimination process. After 2027, the mainstream players in the low-speed autonomous vehicle industry may be reduced to less than 20. Those small factories with insufficient technology and relying solely on low prices for competition will be eliminated from the market. The remaining enterprises will either have strong technical capabilities, substantial capital support, or have formed an irreplaceable competitive advantage in specific niche scenarios. For the current startups entering the industry, simply competing on assembly and price is no longer an option. Establishing core technologies and barriers in specific scenarios is the way to survive.
>>>> Four suggestions for practitioners
Create diverse scenarios and formulate alternative plans. Policy changes occur rapidly, and relying on a single scenario carries high risks. Enterprises need to plan for Plan B in advance and enhance their ability to withstand risks.
Allocate compliance costs and make a sound budget plan. Compliance expenses such as insurance, license application, and personnel training will become routine operations and should be included in the cost calculation in advance.
Attach great importance to data security and establish a solid compliance baseline. Comply strictly with policy requirements to carry out data encryption and local storage, and avoid missing out on market opportunities due to data security issues.
Strengthen communication between the government and enterprises, and participate in the pilot projects. Actively maintain close contact with local governments, proactively participate in the formulation of policy pilots, and seize the initiative for compliant development.